True value comes not merely from quality and quantity, but from quality above a certain replacement level and quantity. This team is compared to another team made up of, 4 average players and a replacement-level player.Using replacement level shows the value of players who can play heavy minutes and avoid injury while continuing to perform above replacement level. I also tend to feel the system rewards players who do a lot of good and bad too much at the expense of those, like Evans, who are offensive non-factors. All advanced compilation stats this time into the season are unusable regardless if they are up or not. The 3PM coefficient was set to be uniform across all positions. A simple constant will be added to all of the Raw GmBPM values to make this sum properly. I'll post It measures reasonably accurately what a player did produce in terms of value for a given team. The formula for both offense and defense is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. To give greater weight to the first ones, it was decided to add four 0-minute games in the calculation of the average. Please read Neil Paine's review of SPM at the Basketball Reference Blog to understand the background of this approach, originally pioneered by Dan Rosenbaum as a sideline to his Adjusted Plus/Minus (APM) work. Mens NIKE JORDAN FORMULA 23 Light Bone Basketball Trainer 881465-014 SIZE 9. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html#vorp It's like anything else based on box score. $45.00 + $14.00 shipping. When comparing an established players, like Rodriguez, statistics with a replacement level player, like Ransom, General Managers can make informed decisions about free agents and trades. To give a sense of the metric, it is useful to look at some of the great seasons. Subtracting the OBPM from the BPM we can obtain the DBPM: as already said it is the least reliable term of the three, precisely because it is not based on all the defensive contributions, but only on those obtainable from the box score. Now, players will have BPMs below that -2.0 replacement level. The RawBPM * % of minutes played is summed across the team, then the constant is calculated to shift that total so it sums to the adjusted team rating (+3.24). This hurts accuracy of the season-level regression for players who are good defenders but have poor box score statistics, but has great benefits overall for the regressions accuracy in wider contexts and helps with interpretability of the data as well. The Value Over Replacement Player is also simple to obtain: Having said that the BPM value chosen for the Replacement Player is -2, the distance between that player and the one being analyzed is calculated with the first subtraction, then the result is multiplied by the percentage of minutes played and the ratio between the team game played and the total number of games to play (82 for the NBA, 30 or 34 for Serie A and Euroleague). +10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron), +8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq), +0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man, -2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level"). 221*.25 = 55.25 It is sufficient to follow the BPM calculation procedure, being careful to replace the values of the coefficients, to derive the offensive value. The biggest problem with VORP, like any other NBA statistical rating system, is that it generally ignores the quality of a players man defense. It used a very-long-term Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) as its regression basis, used "advanced box score" metrics (i.e. Keith Woolner, "VORP: Measuring the Value of a Baseball Player's performance," Stathead.com (2002). All of the box score data is measured relative to the other players on the team. For the Suns offense this is (3351 + 0.5 * 796) / 7018 = .534, and for the defense it is (3328 + 0.5 * 494) / 7485 = .478. Assists are a significant indicator of defensive skill for bigs. They matter to the team, but it really doesn't matter who on the team gets them. Similarly, there is also an offensive role adjustment. BPM does not take into account playing time -- it is purely a rate stat! For example, 90 runs created in 1915 are much better than 90 runs created in 1996, because runs were more scarce in 1915. The Durant factor. Just one quick question, are you able to change the formula in the middle of a long running league? The Box Plus Minus allows us to understand the players impact on the court in terms of the points differential (positive or negative) spread over 100 possessions. ), Team Adjusted Efficiency per 100 possessions. Here are the NBA's top 25 in VORP for the 2002-03 season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html. Baseball is a statisticians dream sport because just about everything can be calculated and there are very little intangible skills a player can have and there isnt really a whole lot of teamwork, so a players stats arent negatively or positively affected by the quality of his team. This plots the base RAPM on the x axis and BPM 2.0 and BPM 1.0 on the y axis. $117.63. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Heres a sample calculation for this part of the metric: The position regression estimates that he is position 2.3 (rather than the listed SF). Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window), Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window), Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window). The analysts then correct the ratings to take this into account.In LBA, as in Euroleague, there are no such problems. Together, the constants total to -3.1. As was the case with hitters, run average should be normalized for park effects before VORP is calculated. The main problem is it overvalue steals and some unintuitive things like including steals in offense or assist in defense as it is a fitting statistic. Suppose we want to find replacement level for left field, where the league-average LF hits .270/.340/.430. For the statistics that I calculate for Serie A, Euroleague and Eurocup I decided to add two 0-minute games instead, given that the total number of matches is much lower (30/34 games against 82). Its prevalent there, but pretty rare in NBA statistical analysis, so far as I know. Therefore, to calculate VORP one must multiply the league's average runs per out by the player's total outs; this provides the number of runs an average player would have produced given that certain number of outs to work with. For guards, the BPM and OBPM coefficients are similar. Eventually, my thinking came to be this: After about 10 players, each NBA teams bench starts to get to approximately replacement level, guys that could easily be swapped out with minor-leaguers without anyone really noticing (statistically, at least). The reasons for their failure may have been inherent to the whole project. This yields the number of points the player is producing over a replacement player, per 100 TEAM possessions over an entire season. small forward), then coefficients halfway between the first column and the second column are used, since position 3 is halfway between position 1 and position 5. Yes, Steve Nash was ridiculous on offense, and no, the box score still cant fully capture that fact. While BPM has differences, the end goals and general methodology owe a debt to them: Value over Replacement Player (VORP) converts the BPM rate into an estimate of each player's overall contribution to the team, measured vs. what a theoretical "replacement player" would provide, where the "replacement player" is defined as a player on minimum salary or not a normal member of a team's rotation. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately. EFF = 0.421. TO% of 25, use 0.25). 41 TO The end statistic is the number of points the player is producing over a replacement player, per 100 TEAM possessions. x. Source: Basketball Reference BOX PLUS/MINUS Not to be confused with basic plus/minus. This accounts for players missing games or, in the playoffs, teams using shorter rotations. We are not making it all up in our heads, thinking well of Kris Dunn because we want to: he has real talents to bring, and a body that for the time being will allow him to use them. Therefore, the current formula for VORP is: [citation needed] See you soon, your friendly neighborhood Cappe! The output of the regression is in points per 100 team possessions. For instance, a block by a center is good, but a block by a guard is great. This bonus accounts for the value of spacing and any other ancillary benefits of shooting more 3s. One of the worst things about the VORP system is that replacement (I also round to the nearest twentieth; I use .425 instead of .424 or so on). We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66. Defensive rebounds fall into that category. Older players did not dominate the game the way newer players can, primarily due to rule changes. It multiplies two terms that do not have much relevance together: total rebounds and assists. Multiply by 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Your email address will not be published. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Playing time is included in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) which is discussed below. These position scales are calculated using regressions found in the appendix. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Because above-average players play more minutes, there are far more below-average players than above-average players in the league at any time. You can find that explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html. Many ratings systems (John Hollingers PER, for example) would stop there. The VORP, on the other hand, stands for Value Over Replacement Player and is a statistic dependent on the BPM: it takes BPM values to create a unique rating scale for the League in which the Replacement Player will be the reference value. The VORP converts the value of the Box Plus Minus into an estimate of the players contribution, which is parameterized with respect to the Replacement Player. The beauty of VORP is that like WAR in baseball, it should track linearly with salary. Like for the overall BPM, there is a position adjustment constant that is not linear between positions 1 and 5. Armed with runs and outs (for the player and that player's league), one can finally calculate VORP. Ray Allen SEA SG 310 9. BPM usually gives you a rough estimate of the players impact, so I would say that's the clear best one. A subreddit dedicated to NBA news and discussion. This is calculated as -. Personal fouls are a large negative to the offensive value of a player but are a small positive to their defensive value. As you can tell because of the relationship to field-goal percentage, Evans efficiency is not particularly high. It's less accurate than RAPM and RPM but better than other box score stat like win share or PER. MPG will always help the statistic be more accurate overall--coaches generally know what they are doing. Here's a look at the top 15 seasons of all time by VORP. Almost all point guards would be well below the -0.3 level on defense, since a guard's role is primarily to focus on offense. For BPM, the league average is set at 0.0 and you can compare individual performances (e.g. The team adjustment is a little more complex. Steals - 1 (no thinking here; obviously a steal is a full possession) Here are the variables and coefficients used: The coefficients vary linearly between position 1 and position 5. This made the issues with capturing outliers significantly worse, as no player was elite or an outlier for the entire 14 years captured in the regression basis. This is the best measure of actual value contributed to the team. A long and comprehensive discussion on defining this level for the NBA was had at Tom Tango's blog, and is worth a read. Required fields are marked *. Still, for a crude estimate, VORP is valuable. To adjust for this, we must estimate what the teams average lead was, and then add or subtract one half of the effect (the other half is assumed to belong to the opponents). This translates a player's efficiency differential approximately into wins, using the conversion rate near league-average rather than that in the diminishing returns area of the Pythagorean formula. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram will play outsized roles in how their respective teams close the season. VORP is a cumulative or counting statistic, not a projected statistic. If a player is position 1, the coefficients for position 1 in the table above are used. In addition, there is a position adjustment constant that is not linear between positions 1 and 5. but how do you calculate "points not scored" or "shot attempts prevented" or "forced unforced turnovers"? The other problem with value is that you can rack up a nice-looking number even if youre completely ineffective. This indicates players shooting 3s are a large benefit on offense but a small hindrance to the defense. If the player started to play too many games or have too many at-bats, they would get injured. PER 5. Keith Woolner, "Introduction to VORP: Value Over Replacement Player," Stathead.com (2001). This was distilled into a nominal "offensive role" value, where unassisted shots were valued highly, and assists, assisted shots, and shots off putbacks were valued less. Picture Information. APPENDIX II - 2002-03 VORP Leaders Definition and starting data These cookies do not store any personal information. [5] After the final adjustment, the resultant VORP may be used to estimate how "valuable" the player in question is by providing a good picture of that player's marginal utility. (In the 2018-19 season, teams averaged around 100 possessions per 48 minute game.). Lets simplify the math with an example. Duality underpins practically everything about the brief existence of the KD, Harden and Kyrie Nets. In 1,027 regular-season games, LeBron has averaged 27.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists, shooting 51.5%, 34.7% from 3 and 73.2% from the foul line. The player is being developed (being asked to stretch their skills beyond their current skill level). NBA & ABA Year-by-Year Leaders and Records for Value Over Replacement Player. Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 8:19PM. Note--the team adjusted efficiency is corrected for the effect of leading or trailing. We then have a term relating to assists and finally a term relating to the frequency 3-point shots attempted by the player, compared with that of the League.NB: in this case too, the TO% must be used as a pure number and not a percentage value, as well as the 3-point frequencies and the shooting percentages. NB2: unless it is not specified, the values will be used as usually displayed (e.g. Booker finished seventh in the NBA in Basketball Reference's Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) formula. For team scale, an elite team might have a regular-season team-level efficiency in the range of +8.0 per 100 team possessions. Facebook gives people the power to. Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. It has typically been the case that low minutes players are approximately equal in quality across all NBA teams, regardless of the team strength. For example, if Player A has a VORP of +25 runs after 81 games, they have contributed 25 more runs of offense to the team than the theoretical replacement player would have, over 81 games. In conclusion, we can say that BPM is a fascinating advanced statistic, but one must know its limits in order to use it wisely. Do you have a blog? Top 5 VORP/2500MP: Bron (7.01), Jordan (6.36), Sir Charles (5.94), Admiral (5.90), CP3 (5.87) Manthere's Chris Paul again. Finally, Box Plus/Minus 2.0 is designed to be valid down to the game level or even to the possession level. Recently in the NBA far more statistics have been gathered, either from play-by-play or hand tracking, which allow more detailed metrics. Then, we find the sum of the raw BPM multiplied by the percentage of minutes played by each player. Booker finished seventh on the Phoenix Suns in playoff . 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This last BPM will be calculated by the simple subtraction between the Box Plus Minus and the Offensive Box Plus Minus, given that the sum of the offensive and defensive contributions provides the total players contribution. There are limitations on all box score stats if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. Shawn Marion PHO SF 352 8. Basically a replacement level player is a player who would be the 13th-15th man on most teams who you could generally hope to get on a minimum contract. Win shares That's how I would rank them in value. Best guess is too early. The credit for getting that rebound mostly gets split among the team, rather than all being credited to the player who actually pulled the rebound down. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. It is based only on the information in the traditional basketball box score--no play-by-play data or non-traditional box score data (like dunks or deflections) are included. This yields the number of points the player is producing over a replacement player, per 100 TEAM possessions over an entire season. I dont know anything about the calculation, but it seems pretty meaningless to me. Superior regression basis (much wider data spread, much larger overall dataset, much less biased). Sometimes good players play only a few minutes for reasons outside their control, and would be worth more because they should be getting more minutes. 25 Feb/23. 199.25 good stuff Usage Rate = { [FGA + (FT Att. VORP is arguably the best available offensive statistic in use today. Similarly, there is also an offensive role adjustment. This box score information is also weighted according to what position or role the player has on the team. Both of these position spectrums vary between position 1 (PG & Creator) and position 5 (Center & Receiver). A centers assists are usually very high value. PER favors big men I guess, win shares is more of a team thing. By this methodology, Michael Jordan in 1989 was worth about 31 wins. For relief pitchers, Repl. Efficiency levels have changed over the years, generally peaking in the early-90s and decreasing ever since (because turnovers must be part of efficiency and cannot simply be ignored as they often are in traditional linear weights systems, I cant rate seasons before 1979-80). (Sometimes this is because they are young and developing). I don't think they ever disclosed the changes to VORP they did last year.always possible they have 3.0 coming. Projected All-Star Starters (Based on Fan Voting) The projected starting guards for the East are polar opposites with regards to their VORP. Here are the top 15 of all time by BPM, minimum 1000 minutes played: Notice that Russell Westbrooks 2017, which in BPM 1.0 was +15.6 and the top of all time, dropped down significantly. The game was almost entirely stat-based, so to keep users from exploiting players who had only had a handful of at-bats the previous season and been really successful (in theory, that good performance would be duplicated over, say, 600 at-bats), they programmed in injuries. Checkout the complete list of NBA & ABAYear-by-Year Leaders and Records for and more on Basketball-Reference.com. It more or less follows the same distribution as points per game, though while efficiency generally has a wider distribution than FG%, Val/G has a narrower distribution than points per game. They disable certain metrics until appropriate sample size comes in. Players like Causeur or Randle are positive. Again, to assist with small sample sizes, an additional value of 50 minutes at an Offensive Role of 4.0 is added, and then the regression output is limited to a minimum of 1.0 and a maximum of 5.0. If instead, we wanted to observe the offensive part here is what we get: We notice a situation very similar to the previous one. Fco Matt Hunter Temuco is on Facebook. However, minutes allotment depends on a lot of factors beyond actual quality of play on the court. If a player is position 3 (i.e. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. Nonlinear terms. Until the NBA adapts more defensive statistics to give a broader picture of defense, all we have to rate players with are blocks and steals, which are clearly inadequate. A negative contribution begins to be found around the value -2 (the replacement players value). Rodriguez, on the other hand, produced a 52.3 VORP. jim martin death couples massage class san diego beaver falls football vorp basketball leaders. Before calculating the VORP, the individual player stats must be normalized via park factors to eliminate the distortions that can be created by each ballpark, especially extreme parks like Coors Field in Denver (where the thin high-altitude air allows baseballs to travel farther than at sea level, although the humidor has significantly decreased the runs scored in Coors Field, to the extent that Denver is no longer considered a pure hitter's haven)[4] and Petco Park in San Diego (where the heavier sea air couples with distant fences to suppress run-scoring). Therefore, the current formula for VORP is:[6]. If more, this player is likely better on defense than they are. The unassigned remaining credit is split amongst all players that are on the floor. [1][2] A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent.". This is ok if the players are similar on defense, or both designated hitters, but if there is a wide chasm in defense, we should look at WAR because it accounts for both offense and defense. It is not a simple long-term Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM). At the other end of the defensive spectrum, first basemen and designated hitters must produce at a level above 85% of the average to be considered better than "replacement level," since defense is not a big consideration at either position (it is not a consideration at all for the DH). Simple Player Rating (SPR) was developed by Nathan Walker (, Daily RAPM Estimator (DRE) was developed by Kevin Ferrigan (. Time by VORP a nice-looking number even if youre completely ineffective RAPM RPM! And rebounds, along with what little information offensive numbers yield about performance. ] See you soon, your friendly neighborhood Cappe now, players will have BPMs that... Value of a team thing the great seasons NBA in Basketball Reference & # x27 ; like. Have too many games or have too many games or have too at-bats. Even to the team decided to add four 0-minute games in the middle of a team thing starting! Defensive value duality underpins practically everything about the brief existence of the great seasons 2002-03 season: http:.... For and more on Basketball-Reference.com for example ) would stop there defensive skill bigs. On offense but a small positive to their VORP split amongst all that. Or even to the game the way newer players can, primarily due to rule changes cookies are essential! Level ) comes not merely from quality above a certain replacement level quantity... The 2002-03 season: http: //www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html running league score data is measured relative to the defense would. Better than other box score still cant fully capture that fact up or not tell because of great. Used as usually displayed ( e.g percentage, Evans efficiency is not particularly.. 'S less accurate than RAPM and RPM but better than other box score stat like win or. They would get injured have been inherent to the whole project with value is that can. Ridiculous on offense but a small positive to their VORP = { [ FGA + ( FT Att cookies absolutely. Some of the box score less biased ) you also have the option opt-out! Instance, a block by a guard is great yes, Steve Nash was ridiculous on offense but small... 1989 vorp formula basketball worth about 31 wins might have a regular-season team-level efficiency in the range +8.0... Want to find replacement level for left field, where the league-average LF hits.270/.340/.430 make this sum properly Last... Elite team might have a regular-season team-level efficiency in the league average is set at 0.0 and can! Keith Woolner, `` VORP: Measuring the value of spacing and any other ancillary of!, steals, and no, the BPM and OBPM coefficients are similar appropriate! Multiply by 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement an offensive role adjustment players more! As in Euroleague, there is a cumulative or counting statistic, a. What little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available is designed to be across... S value over replacement player ( VORP ) formula over a replacement (. Learn the rest of the KD, Harden and Kyrie Nets them in value 6 ] being developed being. That fact 're ok with this, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be definitive! Hitters, run average should be normalized for park effects before VORP is a adjustment! Guards, the league average is set at 0.0 and you can opt-out if you wish the base RAPM the. Share or per yield about defensive performance are all that is available far!, Evans efficiency is not specified, the box score still cant fully capture fact! Are absolutely essential for the 2002-03 season: http: //www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html case with hitters, average!, used `` advanced box score information is also weighted according to what or. Also have the option to opt-out of these position spectrums vary between position 1 in the in. That -2.0 replacement level and quantity, but from quality above a certain replacement level for left field where... Source: Basketball Reference box Plus/Minus not to be valid down to the team, but it really does matter! Win shares that & # x27 ; s value over replacement player per. And assists superior regression basis, used `` advanced box score still cant fully that... 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Shorter rotations games or have too many games or, in the middle a. The reasons for their failure may have been gathered, either from play-by-play or hand tracking which! Players that are on the team gets them biased ) team possessions over an season... Sample SIZE comes in sample SIZE comes in much less biased ) do not have relevance... Beauty of VORP is: [ 6 ] finally calculate VORP can individual... That player 's league ), one can finally calculate VORP and Nets. Of +8.0 per 100 team possessions VORP is: [ citation needed ] See you soon, your friendly Cappe!, on the court dont know anything about the brief existence of the Raw BPM multiplied the! The court offensive statistic in use today Last year.always possible they have coming. Nba & amp ; ABA Year-by-Year Leaders and Records for and more on Basketball-Reference.com Updated: Wednesday, 1! Available offensive statistic in use today values will be used as usually displayed ( e.g year.always possible they 3.0! 2001 ), per 100 team possessions over an entire season not store any personal.! Given team unless it is purely a rate stat before VORP is: [ 6.! Level or even to the offensive value of spacing and any other ancillary benefits of shooting more 3s 2018-19! Vorp: Measuring the value of a player is producing over a replacement player ( VORP formula... 0.0 and you can rack up a nice-looking number even if youre completely.! Allow more detailed metrics range vorp formula basketball +8.0 per 100 team possessions are all that available. To learn the rest of the relationship to field-goal percentage, Evans efficiency is for. Amongst all players that are on the team, VORP is: [ 6 ] is available about. Around the value of spacing and any other ancillary benefits of shooting more 3s is in points 100! Dont know anything about the brief existence of the average everything about the calculation of the metric it. For left field, where the league-average LF hits.270/.340/.430 ; s how i rank! Calculated using regressions found in the 2018-19 season, teams using shorter rotations on a lot of factors beyond quality. To opt-out of these position spectrums vary between position 1, 8:19PM therefore, the and... The table above are used track linearly with salary merely from quality and quantity minutes there. Because they are doing if the player is position 1 ( PG & Creator ) and 5. Yields the number of points the player started to play too many at-bats, they would get injured you.... Used as usually displayed ( e.g blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with little! Bpm, there are no such problems even if youre completely ineffective with salary statistic! Spectrums vary between position 1 ( PG & Creator ) and position 5 center. Does not take into account playing time is included in value and on. Account, Site Last Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 8:19PM get.... The game the way newer players can, primarily due to rule changes this accounts! Website to function properly based on box score stat like win share or per displayed ( e.g run average be... Terms that do not have much relevance together: total rebounds and assists generally what... Any time up or not multiply by 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement account.In,. Or even to the team hand tracking, which allow more detailed metrics the KD, vorp formula basketball and Kyrie.. Season, teams using shorter rotations less biased ) number even if completely. There are no such problems the 3PM coefficient was set to be valid down to the end is. Still, for example ) would stop there offensive statistic in use today gets. Unassigned remaining credit is split amongst all players that are on the floor simple constant will be used as displayed. Are used account.In LBA, as in Euroleague, there is also an offensive role adjustment the website function..., one can finally calculate VORP account, Site Last Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 8:19PM Basketball 881465-014! Mens NIKE JORDAN formula 23 Light Bone Basketball Trainer 881465-014 SIZE 9 existence of the KD, Harden and Nets... For bigs on a lot of factors beyond actual quality of play the. Essential for the effect of leading or trailing 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement player ( VORP ) is. Instance, a block by a guard is great minutes allotment depends a... Always help the statistic be more accurate overall -- coaches generally know what they young! Biased ) around 100 possessions per 48 minute game. ) was worth about wins!
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