Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. Final DraftKings Picks PGA DFS Lineups - The Honda Classic Invitational Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (Premium Content) LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Mayakoba. RELATED: Phil Mickelson drops to depressingly low standing in the Official World Golf Ranking. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Now, McDonald has sifted through the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational field for the best value and locked in his best bets and favorites to avoid. Recent history says a star will win this weekend, but that doesnt mean we cant take a look at three sleepers with a chance to pull an upset. No, he is not a tout. As for Tyrrell Hatton, hes quietly been playing phenomenally this season, with a T40 and T6 at the Genesis and Phoenix, respectively, showing up at the elevated events. In six appearances at Bay Hill, Fleetwood has four top-25s finishes, including three top 10s (career-best third-place finish in 2019). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. I was tempted to play Gary Woodland at +12500 in the PGA Championship Tommy Fleetwood of England looks on from the fourth hole during the second round of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 10, 2023 in Scottsdale, Arizona. Full Leaderboard . Wind proved a decisive factor in the 2022 outcome of the Arnold Palmer and should be monitored closely ahead of tee off on Thursday. No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000. Complete 2023 College Basketball Conference Tournament Schedule, MGC Extends Deadline For Diversity, Kiosk Studies, Minnesota Lawmakers Advance HF 2000 In House Committee. Kim has already shown flashes of greatness in his career, so dont be afraid to back the 20-year-old at a number like this even in a dynamite field. And with high winds in the forecast it may very well come down to a scrambling contest before crowning a winner in the single digits under par. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. For now, well assume equal playing conditions for the full field when determining top value plays until more information becomes available on tee times and Thursday/Friday weather reports. Compared to other top players, he has much less experience at Bay Hillplaying here just once, finishing T-49 in 2015. BetMGM Announces Responsible Gaming Advertising Strategy, Ohio Sports Betting Promos: Illinois Fighting Illini at OSU Buckeyes Odds. Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. Now lets dig into some longshots. Note: prices listed Bet with your head, not over it. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Gehman: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) There are more questions than answers in Thomas game right now as he continues to show inconsistencies with his best attributehis approach play. Bay Hill has been a ball-strikers paradise historically, and theres no better ball-striker to go to war with (besides Willy Z) than Kawa. Even still, you can find him beyond 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field, and at the discounted DraftKings price of $7,600. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports. The Masters - Golf: Long shots have serious Augusta chances. The odds arent pretty, but my gut tells me that either Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm is winning at Arnies place this week and Im going with the slightly better odds. Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. 3 Jon Rahm once again earns the title of top betting favorite, with +750 odds-to-win. Putnam tasted success at this event with a T7 finish in 2021 while in far worse form, so his combination of current form and past results in this event spell a high floor. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. The benefit of having a field this loaded, is youll usually find a few high upside plays slip to the very bottom of DFS pricing. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. RELATED: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our DFS expert dives deep into Rory McIlroys staggering advanced metrics. As a Florida resident, Bradley has naturally looked comfortable on the Florida Swing, with six top-30 finishes over his last seven starts in the state. Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) Im normally a if you can get JT at 20-1 or better, take it) guy, but Im just not loving what were seeing from him so far this season. You read that correctly: Not only did he finish T4 last year, but he also won the Genesis Invitational in 2020. In his last five starts and first five tournaments on the PGA Tour in 2023, Rahm has three victories, a Top 3 and a T7 finish. Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (+105) over Cameron Young (DraftKings) Fleetwood has a long history of success at Bay Hill and while Cam Young looked good in his first start at API, hes been one of the worst-performing wind players in the field. by Mastercard. Justin Thomas enters play in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +2500 odds to win after a 20th-place performance in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC February 16 - 19 in his last tournament.Thomas has one win, and an average finish of 20th, in his 20 events during the past year While he fell victim to a faulty putter in his last start, the 31-year-old has actually gained strokes putting in his past four appearances on Bermuda grass. Without any further delay, lets get to our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, with afocus on longshots and sleepersfor your DFS lineups. So which 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational players should you target or avoid? As a 7,216 yard par-71, TPC Scottsdale is about average in terms of total yardage, but plays shorter than the scorecard suggests in firm and dry conditions at elevation. The Wake Forest star remains one of the best drivers of the ball on long golf courses, as well as one of the best long iron players in the field. In just his second year on TOUR, Pendrith has already accumulated 13 top-25 finishes, which span across comp courses like PGA National, Winged Foot and Torrey Pines. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industrys leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Caddie: Max Homa (+130) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) Homas ball-striking is in an elite category right now, and theres no reason to believe he shouldnt keep up his hot form. Its yet another elevated event on the PGA Tourso its dangerous to put our chips down on one name over 20-1, but thats what were doing. Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. Other long shots worth a look this week are a few pros who have been recently featured here, including Adam Scott (+10000), Sepp Straka (+12500) and Beau Hossler (+1500). THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, CACHED OR OTHERWISE USED, EXCEPT WITH THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. 2023 DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our red-hot experts make a consensus bet, thanks to Christopher Powers 30-1 win on Chris Kirk last week, Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Challenger/Champion, create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. 2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Longshot of the week As mentioned before, major winners can be found throughout the field this week. He has the ball-striking to put together a strong showing at Bay Hill, and while the putter is still hit-or-miss, its not nearly as bad as it used to be. But, crucially, it can be argued they are worse than Scott deserves based on his past performance. Final DraftKings Picks PGA DFS Lineups - The Honda Classic Invitational Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (Premium Content) LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Mayakoba. Hahn is a volatile player who wont jump off the stat sheet, but with top-10 finishes last season at TPC Twin Cities and TPC Craig Ranch, hes beginning to show a trend in favoring the TPC-style, risk-reward layouts. Scroll down to read our best bets for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outrights, including a MONSTER 250-1 payout on Hudson Swafford at The American Express. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood among top long-shot plays at this weeks PGA Tour stop Check out our betting preview for the 2023 John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Last weeks PGA TOUR golf sleepers article produced a contender in Ben Martin at longshots odds, and well set out to find more diamonds in the rough again as we shift focus to Phoenix. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 picks of your own! Steeles course history includes four top-10s and eight top-30s over the last 11 years. Getting cheeky with these parlays hasnt been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. Zozo: Sungjae Im. If youve been reading this column over the past month or so, youve been cashing tickets. Admittedly, Im a sucker for Viktor Hovland but I love all the trends Im seeing. Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) For the first time this year, Zalatoris looks like himself again. Skip to navigation. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). Pick to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.5 Units): Rory McIlroy (+950). Its worth noting that Day has played more rounds than both of those guys. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Min Woo Lee didnt win as our outright pick last week but our longshot from last week, Ben Taylor, came up with a Top 5 finish. And while Fleetwood has yet to win in the U.S., he does boast 21 top-10 finishes in his career and 33% of those have come in Florida, including three at this very course. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. The greatest party in golf is here this week as we continue our handicapping of 2023 WM Phoenix Open odds, AKA Wasted Management, AKA The Peoples Open at TPC Scottsdale. Scheffler won last year at 5 under, beating Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Billy Horschel and by one stroke. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the world's top 50 golfers, and they are in for a difficult test. Overvalued of the most overvalued of the most recent winners of the most recent winners of the most recent of! Which 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the Arnold Palmer (! Get to our Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the Genesis.! On a heater in the Official World Golf Ranking DFS lineups even still, you can him. 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